One looks to historical perspective to get a read on what currently is happening so as to analyze and form an opinion as to where it's headed. Forget about trying to analyze this one. Sarah Palin's unconventional rise to VP nominee and now potential presidential candidate is going to be in the history books some day when political scientists can have the benefit of hindsight to analyze it and tell us what happened. Until then, it's a story unfolding and only Sarah Palin knows the answer.
Democrats are cheering Sarah Palin's resignation as Alaska governor as a sign that their smear campaign and filing of frivolous ethics complaints has worked. They think she's going away. Independents don't understand what just happened. They are willing to wait for the outcome. Old guard elitist conservatives see this as a great way to level the playing field. They will spin the news of her announcement to step down as Alaska Governor as a sign she is not the overwhelming front runner after all. They may even tip off part of their complicity in the Vanity Fair smear piece, which contain critical comments about Palin that still can not be validated by a single source. McCain campaign officials have already spoken out to refute anonymous comments made by the unnamed "so called" McCain campaign aides.
But true supporters and those who are looking for a true conservative leader for the Republican party are staying in. They know that Sarah Palin is driven to something and that keeps them in the game, a game that could be won with an "ankle" politically "fractured" by her resignation.
Palin can now respond directly to the smear campaign. By being Governor, she risks using her "desk" as a forum from which to defend herself from slandering bloggers when she should be doing the state's business. As a private citizen, she can sue them and put them in her book. She wields a mightier sword, despite taking a big political risk which could alienate undecideds - a group that still waits to see what Sarah Palin can do now that she has no title.
That could be corrected after the book comes out and Palin becomes a blogosphere sensation. She tells her army in a tweet: "Critics are spinning, so hang in there as they feed false info on the right decision made as I enter last yr in office to not run again...."
Take a deep breath. There are 3 1/2 years left until the 2012 presidential election. A lot can happen. Sarah Palin holds the answer. Whether it works or not is totally up to her now. With more freedom to control her brand, her future will no longer be in the hands of an unchecked hostile media that spreads lies about her.
We will be participants in a future political science lesson that has yet to reveal its answer to us.